Myanmar/Burmese Army in ceasefire with one of the bigger Burmese ethnic armies


Cease fires in Burma are always iffy, but this one has potential. The Arakan Army (AA) has been thinking big. Traditionally in Rakhine in the south west of the country, in recent months/years they've been hanging around in the north east. People have figured this to be largely for military training and arms, but they were probably also exploring the civil government structures of the Wa and Kachins. Now back in Rakhine, they've reached a new informal truce with the Burmese military.


With the AA acting as a sort of neutral party between the military, the other ethnic armies, and the so-called National Unity Government (NUG), who are actively pushing revolution, the AA may carve out a role for themselves helping to unify the country. They could run for election in the military's elections scheduled for 2023.


Currently NUG is committed to a war that they'll never win. Their only other path forward is to wait for Suu Kyi to die in jail, to be replaced by a new generation of leaders.


Most of the other ethnic armies have been fighting the central government all of their lives, with no real plans for peace, other than peace talks sponsored by the military and vetoed by NUG.


Perhaps the AA could turn into a national political party?